Analysis – New Zealand, in a recession and on its way to the polls, is pragmatic about trade with China

With only three months left until the close election, and with the economy already in recession, analysts say Hipkins is seeking to step out of former leader Jacinda Ardern’s shadow and show that he is the best person to lead the country for another. Three years.

One of Hipkins’ goals is to reassure voters that it is Labor who restore prosperity, which includes avoiding friction with the country’s largest trading partner, which could hurt New Zealand’s exports.

“This was an important visit for Hipkins as he boosted his image as the new prime minister in an election year,” said Robert Eason, professor of strategic studies at the University of Victoria.

“Hipkins has shied away from any controversy. We are back, for a moment at least, in the situation where New Zealand admits that it disagrees with China on some important issues, without just mentioning it.

New Zealand has long been seen as the most conciliatory towards China of the security Five Eyes group, which includes Australia, the United States, Britain and Canada.

However, Foreign Minister Nanaya Mahuta and Ms. Ardern recently met with their counterparts to discuss the situation in Xinjiang and the erosion of democracy in Hong Kong, while also raising concerns about potential militarization in the Pacific and tensions in the Taiwan Strait.

The statement after Mr. Hipkins’ meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping did not mention any of these issues.

“Mr Hipkins’ visit is certainly a tick in the box of international legitimacy for China, and Beijing has benefited at least as much as New Zealand exporters,” said Mr. Eason, from the University of Victoria.

New Zealand exporters played an important role in the visit, as a delegation of 29 companies accompanied the prime minister to China.

The business world is not Labour’s traditional support base, but Mr Hipkins has worked hard to win the sector’s trust since taking office – he spent his first day on the job in January talking to business leaders in Auckland.

“I feel there is an important aspect of domestic politics in this election year and that Mr Hipkins wants to be seen as a kind of good deal on China relations,” said David Kaby, director of the University of Victoria’s Center for Strategic Studies.

The latest opinion polls, dating back to the end of May, put the National Opposition and Labor coalition ahead of the Labor-Green coalition. However, neither coalition managed to obtain a clear majority.

The trade-focused visit is not expected to negatively impact New Zealand’s relations with other partners, said Derek J. Grossman, senior defense analyst at RAND Corp. in the US, because many countries are aware of the delicate balancing act Wellington is involved in.

Moreover, as the Biden administration has made clear with India regarding its relations with Russia, as long as the partners agree to cooperate on an Indo-Pacific strategy to counter China, Washington is willing to tolerate a number of behaviors that do not suit their interests or even their values.