Other large island nations would be better off, too: Iceland, the United Kingdom, Australia (Tasmania), and Ireland.
[2 Agosto 2021]
He. She studio “Probability Analysis of Formation of Nodes of Continuous Complexity”, Publicato Su Sustainability By Nick King and Aled Jones of the Global Sustainability Institute at Anglia Ruskin University (ARU), examining the factors that could lead to the collapse of global civilization and emerging New Zealand as the most resilient country in the face of future threats.
The study focuses on “decomplicating,” a widespread reflection of the trends of modern civilization, which can see the collapse of supply chains, international agreements, and global financial structures and explains how “a combination of environmental destruction, limited resources, and population growth can reduce the overall complexity of civilization, as Climate change acts as a “risk multiplier,” exacerbating current trends.”
This can happen during a “long slump” of years or decades, or it can happen very quickly, in less than a year, with no warning of an impending crash. King and Jones suggest that a hybrid of these two hypotheses could also occur “with a gradual onset that then gains momentum through ‘feedback loops’, leading to a sudden collapse. Effects can spread rapidly due to the increasing interdependence and interdependence of a globalized economy.”
By examining self-sufficiency (energy and production infrastructure), carrying capacity (land available for agriculture and total population) and isolation (distance from other large population centers that may be vulnerable to mass migration events), the study identified the five countries with the best starting conditions for surviving collapse. globalization, and the finding that, should this occur, New Zealand, along with Iceland, the United Kingdom, Australia (especially Tasmania) and Ireland are currently better suited to maintaining higher levels of social, technological, and organizational complexity within its borders.
For the ARU, they note, “All five continents are islands or island continents, with a strong oceanic climatic influence. They currently have low variability in temperature and precipitation and therefore have the greatest likelihood of relatively stable conditions continuing despite the effects of climate change.”
New Zealand, Iceland, the United Kingdom, Australia (Tasmania) and Ireland were then qualitatively assessed for their national energy and agricultural characteristics, and these criteria identified New Zealand as the country “with the greatest potential to survive relatively unscathed. Its capacity to produce geothermal energy and hydropower, abundant Its agricultural land and low population.Iceland, Australia (Tasmania) and Ireland also have favorable characteristics, while the United Kingdom presents a more complex picture due to its complex energy mix and high population density.Although the United Kingdom has generally fertile land and diversified agricultural production, the share of Per capita agricultural land is low, which raises questions about future self-sufficiency.
Jones concludes: “Significant changes are possible in the coming years and decades. The impact of climate change, including increased frequency and severity of droughts and floods, temperature extremes, and increased population displacement, can dictate the severity of these changes. In addition to showing countries which we believe are best suited to manage such a collapse – which will undoubtedly be a profound and life-changing experience – our study aims to highlight actions to address the interrelated factors of climate change, agricultural capacity, national energy, productive capacity and over-reliance on complexity, which are essential to improving the resilience of states which do not have the most favorable starting conditions.
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