The 2016 US presidential election, which Donald Trump won, was a berezina among pollsters, who saw Hillary Clinton in the White House; Without reproducing such a disaster, pollsters announced in 2020 that the Joe Biden camp victory was clearly more important than reality. Five institutes claimed responsibility for the mistake on Tuesday, April 13th.
«We all felt that the elections would be much better for the Democrats than what happened. So where is the error?Ask in a joint statement about ALG Research, Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group, GBAO Strategies, Global Strategy Group, and Normington Petts.
The five polling institutes play a major role in the democratic sphere, and provide advice on electoral strategies at the local and national level. Contrary to their expectations, the Democrats, for example, did not consolidate their majority in the House of Representatives in 2020. Even if Joe Biden largely won the popular vote on November 3, the details of the indirect American ballot mean that he returned to the White House thanks to a difference of 43,000 votes. Only in the states of Wisconsin, Georgia and Arizona.
Introspection – sounding gore
After a self-examination that lasted for months, the five polls concluded that their main mistake was to overestimate the Democrats’ expected turnout, compared to their opponents. This is especially true among the voters of the popular classes, among whom one would expect to see more abstentions. A mistake was actually made by pollsters four years ago.
«This error in voter turnout has, at least in some areas, once again reduced turnout among rural voters and uneducated whites.The five companies recognized this category of voters that clearly leans toward the Republican side. Another path that pollsters have skewed: they are the constituency of voters who refuse to respond to polls. “There is a fundamental difference between the people we have contacted and the others. This problem appears to have been amplified with Trump in the row», Analyzes the group of respondents.
In other words, in a highly polarized country, the pro-Trump white working class appears to represent a much larger portion than Americans who rejected the idea of being consulted before the vote could have imagined. Yet they voted.