Here are the areas where the economy will collapse in 30 years due to global warming

Here are the areas where the economy will collapse in 30 years due to global warming

A new study published in nature The shock map shows: the countries whose economies will suffer most from climate change by 2049. For a large part of the world, the economic downturn will be massive, but for another part, rising temperatures will bring benefits!

Climate change has an economic cost, and this cost will worsen as the climate continues to warm. The researchers wanted to identify the countries whose economies would be most affected Due to the consequences of global temperature rise. So they studied how the economies of 1,600 regions around the world respond to disasters Weather reportWeather report Over the past forty years. They then made projections for the future, up to 2050, taking into account different warming scenarios (optimistic and pessimistic) and their impacts.

Did you know ? Global warming was first highlighted in 1856! Discover the story of the woman who demonstrated it in Science Hunters. © Futura

19% recession by 2049

Overall, the global economy will experience a recession of approximately 19% over the next 26 years. The recession rate could rise to 29% depending on the decisions taken ThemeTheme The environment, or on the contrary, is “only” 11%. Obviously, evolving our practices to build a more sustainable world comes at a significant cost, but researchers are categorical: the economic damage associated with global warming is much higher (at least 6 times) than the costs needed for mitigation and adaptation: 38,000 billion per year by 2049!

The economies of all countries of the South will be disrupted

They developed a global map showing the regions whose economies will suffer most from rising temperatures by 2049. ColorsColorsFrom blue to dark red, represents the percentage change in per capita income compared to a reference without climate influence.

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The map shows the change in per capita income by 2049. © nature

Almost the entire planet is affected, except at very high latitudes. In these regions, higher temperatures are also likely to bring benefits to the economy, according to the researchers: this is the case for Russia, Canada, Alaska, northern Scandinavia and Greenland (with a percentage of per capita income that should increase +2 to +25% compared to a reference with no effect on climate). Elsewhere, the lower latitudes countries are located, the more their economies will suffer.

For some, in dark red on the map, a CollapsesCollapses They are even taken into account economically if warming continues to accelerate (-25 to -30%, or even more): this is the case of West Africa (Mali, Mauritania, Niger, etc.), and of the Middle East (Saudi Arabia, Oman, Yemen, Iraq…), from South America (Brazil, Bolivia, Paraguay…) to name a few.

Immediately after that, we find Australia, almost the rest of Africa, India, part of China, Thailand, Cambodia, Vietnam, part of Mexico, but also southern Spain (-20 to -25%). Europe and France come next, with an equally large impact on the economy (-10 to -20%).

For the countries further south, climate injustice is striking: the countries that emit the least greenhouse gases, and thus contribute the least to global warming, will suffer the greatest economic consequences.

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