Europe, a good student in a world that still relies heavily on fossils

Europe, a good student in a world that still relies heavily on fossils

The rise is less steep, but the fall is not yet in sight. According to the latest projections from the global carbon budget, a report published on Tuesday 5 December by the Global Carbon Project group, which brings together one hundred and twenty-one scientists and ninety-five organisations, Global CO2 Emissions2 The production and consumption of fossil fuels will be associated with 36.8 billion tons of carbon dioxide (or 36.8 gigatonnes – GtCO)2) In 2023.

This represents an increase of 1.1% compared to 2022, and this total is still 1.4% above 2019 levels, before the temporary decline related to the global Covid-19 pandemic. If we take into account the deficit associated with land use change (deforestation for example), the result is 40.9 billion tons of carbon dioxide.2.

Year by year, the effect of global warming increases. “Carbon dioxide level2 The atmosphere is expected to average 419.3 parts per million [parties par million] in 2023, or 51% more than pre-industrial levels.The study suggests that the most ambitious threshold in the 2015 Paris Agreement may soon be crossed: If current levels of carbon dioxide emissions2 As this phenomenon continues, it is possible to exceed the remaining carbon budget to limit global warming to no more than 1.5°C with a 50% probability within seven years. »

“We’re just accelerating slower.”

While 28H The World Climate Conference (COP28) in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, is supposed to discuss reducing or exiting fossil fuels, but the world’s dependence on these fuels remains overwhelming.

READ  “When NGOs reveal their true nature after the October 7 massacres in Israel”

In detail, emissions related to coal (41% of the total) are expected to increase by 1.1%, those related to oil (32%) by 1.5%, and those related to natural gas (21%) by 0.5%. . The only clarification in this picture is the CO release2 The increases are less robust than in the past: +0.5% over the past decade (2013-2022), less than the annual growth of 2.6% recorded over the previous decade (2003-2012).

“We are in a world where emissions continue to increase, but at a slower pace, the concern is that they should be reducedSums up Philippe Siais, researcher at the Laboratory of Climate and Environmental Sciences and member of this group. It’s like if you hit a wall at 120 km/h, you have to brake but you accelerate more slowly. » The UNEP report, published on November 20, recommended cutting greenhouse gas emissions by 42% in 2030 in the hope of containing temperature rise to +1.5 degrees Celsius.

You have 60% of this article to read. The rest is reserved for subscribers.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *