What variables could become dominant in the coming weeks?

While the seventh wave of the Covid-19 virus continues to decline in France but at an increasingly slower pace, according to the weekly report by Public Health France, an eighth wave of the epidemic is expected in the coming weeks, according to health authorities. ” What we don’t know is its size. “, but ” It will be resumed and there will be a vaccination campaign that will resume in the fall Health Minister Francois Browne said last week.

But how could this new epidemic take shape? ” For now, all scenarios are on the table Pascal Crepi, an epidemiologist at the School of Advanced Studies in Public Health in Rennes explains. “ Is there currently any possibility to predict the viral evolution of SARS-Cos 2? No, science doesn’t allow that yet because mutations happen randomly. Every new infection, wherever it is in the world, is an opportunity for the virus to mutate For his part, continues Mircea Sofonia, Lecturer in Epidemiology and Development of Infectious Diseases at the University of Montpellier.

Special follow-up to BA 2.75

BA.2.75, BA.4.6, BA.2.12.1 … At the moment, if contaminations with the BA.5 variant continue to decrease, no other variant appears to take precedence over the others, experts emphasized. ” In the present context, we only see Omicron Mircea Sofonia says. There was the BA.1 that erupted at the end of 2021 in France which caused a major wave of pollution last January. There was BA.2 in March and we saw the emergence of BA.4 wave at the end of May and in June and July especially BA.5. Other viruses in strains belonging to the Omicron group also circulated during this time to the rest of the world. says the specialist.

This is the case for BA.2.12.1 in the US as well as the Omicron variant BA.2.75, named ” the centaur that have been discovered in India, Nepal and Singapore in large proportions.

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The latter has an additional nine mutations in the spike protein. result ? This could make it more contagious. ” The Omicron BA.2.75 substrain is the subject of special monitoring by the international community on the basis of its mutation profile, and at this point no worrisome epidemiological or clinical indication has been linked to it. It is mainly prevalent in India and is only sporadically detected in other countries, including France. “,” announced public health France
on August 10.

Another possible alternative is BA.4.6. This sub variant was developed in particular in the United States. It has only one additional mutation compared to BA.4 and BA.5. but the” Knowledge is still limited Mircea Sofonia says.

Towards the return of BA.5?

” Do these variants, BA.2.12.1 and BA.2.75, have to fear? At the moment I don’t think soprovides a lecturer in the epidemiology and evolution of infectious diseases. There is still control in France for BA.5 and it is not necessary for there to be a change in the variable to have a wave. During the fifth wave that began in France in the fall of 2021 was a delta, and this delta remained very important even during the year-end celebrations. It was very virulent and the French people did not have the booster doses yet. A variable can make two waves. This was also the case for the historical Wuhan strain and its derivatives during the first and second waves. »

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For Pascal Kribi and Mircea Soufonia, one of the most likely scenarios is a strong return for BA.5 in the coming weeks. ” It is alreadyIt is very present in populations whose immunity is diminished. The good days are behind us rather than ahead, and therefore in the long run, the activities that took place outdoors will take place indoors and this increases the risk of transmission. ”, develops the lecturer at the University of Montpellier.

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There could be a whole new variant emerging

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Another pathway considered by scientists: the path of symbiosis between BA.5 and BA 2.75. “ We are not in a situation where we see BA.2.75 emerging and gradually replacing BA.5, so at the moment we can have a wave of BA.5 and BA 2.75 could be added and shared without really having to replace one with the other. Analyze Mircea Sofonia.

Finally, specialists also do not exclude the scenario of the appearance of a new variant. This was stated in a press release issued by the European Medicines Agency (EMA), Friday 2 September. “ There may be a whole new variable that we can’t predict today Marco Cavalieri, EMA’s head of vaccine strategy, noted during a regular press conference on the Covid-19 situation.