We know more about the cause of the flooding in Dubai

We know more about the cause of the flooding in Dubai

Clearly, the staggering amounts of water that flooded Dubai's streets have raised questions about its source. The two most frequently cited hypotheses are: increased precipitation linked to global warming, and a geoengineering experiment that could have failed. However, in the opinion of the government, as well as in the opinion of scientists, perhaps these two hypotheses should be ruled out!

A week after catastrophic floods hit Dubai, the city is still struggling to drain all the water and address the damage on the streets and inside buildings. The equivalent of one and a half to two years of rain fell locally in certain areas of the country desertdesert. Never before has it rained this much in 24 hours in the United Arab Emirates. It is enough to think of an unnatural origin, especially in a country that regularly practices geoengineering. Until now, the National Center of Meteorology in the United Arab Emirates He told CNBC No cloud seeding experiments have been conducted in the days or hours before severe storms.

There is no evidence that climate change played a role

from his side, Organism Climate scaleIts aim is to determine the causes of phenomena Weather reportWeather report Extremism, published his analysis. This event is described as unique, and above all, researchers believe that there is no evidence that the heavy rains have been significantly worsened by human-caused climate change. They tried to compare the intensity of these rainstorms to other similar events in the past (1979-2001) to understand the differences. This type of depression is a little deeper today (between 2001 and 2023) than in the past, and a little more rainy (3 mm more). Temperatures rose on average +1°C and weather conditions became generally drier in the region. There is no clear evidence to suggest that warming led to more precipitation in this case, although it is still possible.

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An event so unique that it is difficult to draw conclusions

On the other hand, the authors believe that natural factors, such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (changes in ocean surface temperature) certainly played a role. Therefore, it is possible that natural fluctuations generated a very severe low, or a very wet cold drop, perhaps exacerbated a little by warming, but without certainty.

However, let us point out that the study authors still believe that their conclusions are not completely reliable due to the unique nature of the region's heavy rainfall. Specifically when a phenomenon tends to recur over time, it is possible to draw conclusions and link known causes to the disaster, but in the case of Dubai, the event occurred in a completely isolated manner in time.

Is heavy rain in Dubai linked to an experiment that got out of control?

Article by Karen Durand, written on April 17, 2024

Almost two years' worth of rain fell on part of the United Arab Emirates on Tuesday in dazzling fashion. The desert, the city and Dubai Airport were flooded. While some point to the impact of climate change, others raise the issue of cloud seeding.

The city of Dubai was subjected to heavy rainfall this Tuesday: 127 mm of rain in 24 hours, the equivalent of more than a year and a half of rain, and locally for two years in other cities (more than 250 mm).

Looking at the satellite images, we can see that several successive thunderstorms passed through the UAE. These cells were extremely violent energyenergy In the abnormally warm waters of the Persian Gulf.

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These storms were formed as a result of the blocked depression in the region, which is a cold drop that is trapped by the ripples of the depression. JetJet Within many days.

A matter of experience that would deteriorate

It is now accepted by the scientific community that global warming increases the amount of precipitation in depressions and storm clouds, so it is very likely that the global rise in temperatures has exacerbated this phenomenon.

But the UAE is also known for its numerous cloud seeding experiments. The government regularly uses this controversial technique, which consists of injecting products into existing clouds, to create more rain in drier areas.

Effects vary and results are not always the same. Can this heavy precipitation then be linked to cloud seeding that has deteriorated? Without confirmation from the government, this cannot be confirmed.

Sand also seeds clouds

And remember that even if Tuesday's event was exceptional, the UAE is often affected by extremely rainy storms, a phenomenon partly linked to dust particles. sandsand From the desert, which also plays a role in naturally seeding clouds. The previous day, Algeria was also affected by exceptional rains associated with the same weather event, again equivalent to a whole year's rain in Ghardaia and Ouargla.

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