The situation is exploding in the House of Representatives, Kevin McCarthy is very close to being Speaker

The dam broke. After, after Four days and 13 ballot papersOnly two votes are missing Kevin McCarthy That he be elected president of the chamber, after persuading 15 slanderers to vote for him on Friday. The session was adjourned until 10 p.m. (4 a.m., Saturday, Paris time), to allow time for two absent elected officials to return to Congress. And he tried to get two of the six die-hard Republicans to rally to his cause, or at least vote “present” in order to lower the majority threshold.

After an evening of negotiations, optimism returned to Republican ranks Friday morning. Kevin McCarthy has agreed to reinstate the rule allowing only one representative to put forward a motion of no confidence, and to give more power to committees. in the Freedom Caucus, the parliamentary group to which almost all the rebels belong. One by one, the protestors shouted McCarthy’s name, to applause.

complex math

The “Never Kevin” group, led by Matt Gaetz and Lauren Boebert, melted down to just six representatives at the end of rounds 11 and 12. In the final vote, Kevin McCarthy received 214 votes. With two allies absent – due to a medical problem and childbirth – who must return to Washington for the evening, 216 votes out of the 434 elected will be.

The calculation is complicated, because the majority (218) changes if elected officials are absent or choose to vote “present.” Kevin McCarthy could be elected through three different scenarios:

At least two rebels joined his cause to reach a majority of 218

– Thrower votes “present” (raising majority to 217), and another votes “McCarthy”.

Three shooters vote “present” (making 431 votes counted), and McCarthy was elected with 216 votes.

Thus the California representative’s win is almost guaranteed. But with the multiple concessions given to the rebels, he could become the weakest spokesman in modern history. With a majority that could explode on the first sensitive vote, especially to raise the debt ceiling and avoid a federal state “lockdown.”