2023 is the hottest year on record, will 2024 be worse?

2023 is the hottest year on record, will 2024 be worse?

After 2023, in which record temperatures were recorded, 2024 appears to be on track to be warmer, according to weather forecasts. An alarming situation that requires urgent action.

2023 is the hottest year on record worldwide

According to the European Copernicus Observatory, 2023 was the world's hottest year on record. Indeed, a record number of days were recorded in which the temperature exceeded the pre-industrial period (1850-1900) by 1.5°C. ” The annual increase in global average temperature was exceptionally large in the period from 2022 to 2023 », specifies the European service. Thus, for the first time in history, every day of 2023 will be at least 1 degree Celsius above the average level of the period between 1850 and 1900. With a global average temperature of 14.98 degrees Celsius, Each month from June to December of 2023 was warmer than the corresponding month in any previous year », confirms the European Observatory.

And in the month of September The above-average temperature deviation from 1991 to 2020 was larger than for any month of any year in the entire dataset » Harvested 0.93°C more than the reference period, indicates the European Institute. Then come the months of October, November and December, which come a little later in terms of temperature differences compared to the average period between 1991 and 2020.

Is 2024 hotter than 2023, according to weather forecasts?

2024 could break last year's heat record. In any case, this is what the United Nations estimated last Friday. Indeed, the El Niño weather phenomenon is expected to continue this year, according to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).

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According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), there is more than a 30% chance that this year will be warmer than last year, and a nearly 100% chance that 2024 will be among the five hottest years in history. . For his part, Gavin Schmidt, a climate scientist at NASA, estimates that the chances that 2024 will be warmer than 2023 “are.” 50% “.

In the face of this,United nations It calls for urgent action by reducing greenhouse gas emissions to confront climate change that “ The greatest challenge facing humanity », according to Celeste Saulo. In a report published by the World Meteorological Organization last November, the World Meteorological Organization indicated that concentrations of gases responsible for global warming increased sharply in 2023, after having already reached record levels during the previous year. ” Climate change is increasing – and is unequivocally due to human activities “, declared Celeste Saulo, before remembering the necessity of acting: We can't wait any longer. We are already taking action, but we must do more, and we must do it quickly “.

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