Trend in 4 weeks: no cold ahead

December ends with great sweetness. After Christmas, New Year’s Eve will be about 5 to 6 degrees Celsius above average, and the month could end in equilibrium, between a cold first couple of weeks and two very mild minor weeks. For January, calm and cooler high pressure conditions should return before a change is expected in the last decade.

The week of December 26th to January 1st: turbulent, still very light

The last week of the year will feel like Christmas. However, a few quieter, less balmy days punctuated the start of the week, before fresh ice melt and new turbulence spread to the southwest flow. Snowfall on mountains will only occur at high altitudes. The overall reliability is good, and the possibility of cooling at the end of the year is now excluded.

– The week of January 2nd – January 8th: turbulent in the north and high pressure in the south

The start of 2023 should see fairly classic France weather, with a north-south dip. A brief cold snap with snow in the central mountains is possible around January 5, and then the anticyclone spreads over France. Thus, calm, dry and somewhat mild weather can affect our southern regions while disturbances will spread over the northwestern third with periods of rain and wind. Temperatures, slightly lower, may sometimes reach seasonal standards. Reliability is more limited with regard to the duration of the anti-eddy period.

The week of January 9 to January 15: sweetness

With the flow heading south on the brink of a European anticyclone, temperatures will rise in mid-January and return to above normal. The contrast between the cooler east and the more temperate west will be noticeable. Atlantic disturbances will spread to the northwest, perhaps in the Mediterranean, and will be more attenuated in our eastern regions. A more pronounced and general deterioration in the weather can occur in mid-January. Reliability regarding smoothness is good, but the chronology and severity of the disturbances will, of course, still need to be refined.

Week of January 16th to 22nd: cold and unsettled

For this week, the weather will become more turbulent after the previous high pressure sequence. The flow will shift to the northwest: this situation will favor showers on the plains and snowfalls in the central mountains. Temperatures and precipitation will be normal for this season. This development will mark a turning point in January, as the last ten days, i.e. after the 23rd, are likely to become very cold, with temperatures that may drop below average.

So far, there is no particular mention regarding a month January 2023, which should have milder than average temperatures (around +1°C) and precipitation close to normal. However, there is still some uncertainty about the past 10 days, which could be very cold again (temperatures drop below average), but in the meantime, this forecast should be improved in our next updates.