Researchers warn that heavy rain is possible at higher elevations

France Press agency , Posted on Wed, Jun 28, 2023 at 5:08 pm

In an article published in the journal Nature on Wednesday, the researchers concluded that “robust” adaptation strategies with global warming, extreme rains are becoming more likely at high altitudes in areas hitherto accustomed to snowfall.

A team of US-based scientists studied the impact of climate change on precipitation patterns, using observational data for the period 1950-2019 and projections for the coming years. in the year 2100.

They focused particularly on areas of elevation (above 2,000 metres) that today are dominated by snowfall, which tends to give way to rain in a warm climate.

While it is already known that warming intensifies more extreme precipitation (rain or snow), the study is focusing more specifically on precipitation. The authors note that these do not lead to the same results as snowfall.

“Monitoring rain is important because of its devastating effects on floods, landslides and soil erosion,” lead author Muhammad Ambadi of Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory in California told AFP.

The main finding of this research: “The increase in heavy precipitation is amplified in the higher elevation regions of the Northern Hemisphere, by an average of 15% for each degree of warming,” twice what would be expected for the plains, the authors conclude.

They add: “Our findings point to higher elevations as hotspots at future risk from heavy precipitation, requiring robust adaptation plans.”

“You cannot design infrastructure based on past conditions if you want to ensure that it remains sustainable in a warmer climate,” insists Mohamed Ambadi.

Concretely, it is proposed to take into account the increase in heavy rainfall for the design and construction of infrastructure (dams, roads, railways) or even to improve assessments of landslide risk.

The danger concerns not only the mountains, but also the regions downstream, which in total contain a quarter of humanity.

Muhammad Ambadi notes that the recent floods in the western United States or the historic floods in Pakistan last year “may have been in part the result of heavy rains that intensified at high altitudes,” as well as other factors.