NASA revises risk up: There’s a 1 in 360 chance an asteroid will hit Earth on February 14, 2046

Its diminutive code name is “2023 DW”, and it is a near-Earth asteroid of the Aten family. It is about 50 meters in diameter, half the size of a football field. It was discovered on February 26 by the European Space Agency, ESA.

The big boulder threatens the earth. According to scientific calculations, it should come very close to the planet in February 2046. On February 14, precisely Valentine’s Day, according to NASA specialists.

Barely higher than 1 on the Turin scale

At a preliminary count, the probability of an asteroid hitting Earth was 1 in 1,200. That was on March 1st. A week ago, the probability increased from 1 in 560. So from 1 in 360 today.

Their European counterparts are still more likely. They invoked the Turin scale that makes it possible to quantify collision risk and the destructive potential of a collision. The scale has 10 levels and in the case of “2023 DW” the risk is just over 1: the risk of a crash is “extremely unlikely,” according to the label.

On probation

Moreover, Esa wrote on her Twiiter account: “Don’t worry, it is common for asteroids to appear, at first, to be more dangerous than they actually are.” Per CNN, engineer Davide Farnocchia reassured, “This thing isn’t particularly troubling.”

Don’t worry, but it’s better to be careful. “Orbit analysts will continue to monitor asteroid 2023 DW and update forecasts as the data arrives,” NASA says on TRwitter.