Could Antarctica collapse in less than ten years?

In climatology, everything is a matter of cycles. From solar events to the rotation of celestial bodies through the rotation of fluids, we observe a lot of recurring phenomena, and this is on all levels. Some phenomena appear several times a minute, while others are desirable over very long periods; And then it becomes much more difficult to detect them during a person’s life.

Some of these cycles have very tangible consequences for the climate of our planet; This is, for example, the case of some Magnetic cycles of the sun, which we now know are directly related to the Earth’s ice ages.

This is one reason why humans have taken so long to realize their impact on global warming; For too long, science considered it just an ascending part of a Course It has existed since time immemorial.

We know that day These two phenomena are very real; Climate is changing Cyclic On large time scales, however People also have an influence There is no arguing about global warming. The problem is that these two aspects are not independent and can feed each other A somewhat terrifying, but perfectly plausible scenario that researchers at the University of Bonn in Germany fear.

Episodes of “sudden destabilization”

In their work set by future, traced back to the last Ice Age, which ended about 11,700 years ago. By analyzing sediments extracted from the ocean floor, they identified a strange phenomenon; Since the end of this ice age, the Antarctic sea ice has experienced several recurring phases.of sudden destabilization“.

During these stages, the ice pack partially shattered; The melting of these wandering icebergs will eventually cause Significant rise in sea levelwhich can reach several tens of meters. But if these upheavals have changed the face of the globe for centuries, they still are appeared very quickly, barely ten years – a very short time in climatology.

So the researchers worked to identify the difference critical points that caused these phenomena. Thanks to a comprehensive analysis of many parameters, they ended up highlighting a set of warning signs that could signal the onset of this stage of disintegration. As a result, a sudden rise in the water.

The beginning of an irreversible slope?

An interesting note, and we’d probably leave it there… if there are no other implications with respect to the current context. Because unfortunately, it turns out The warning signs discussed above correspond surprisingly well to the situation that we see today in Antarctica. We still lack hindsight to say this with any certainty; But there is permission real possibility We are in the initial stage of A new stage of massive disintegrationWith all that it means at the level of rising water.

“Our models are consistent with the extensive evidence that the acceleration of ice mass loss represents a tipping point.t ”, explain the researchers in communication. ” It can lead to permanent and irreversible thaw and, consequently, to a rise in global waters‘, they warn.

The timing is particularly inappropriate, because we are already unable to manage the consequences of our climate impact. So there is something pessimistic when one imagines that another phenomenon, independent of our actions, may in turn enter the dance. Because today, programs to combat global warming rely on models that do not take these issues into account. For once, we can only hope that the researchers were wrong. Because if they hit the nail in the head, the climate as we know it could change drastically in about ten years, no matter what we do.