Sinan Ogan, the “kingmaker” whom Erdogan does not need

in the end Long election nightWhile Turks worried about a sudden delay in voting data from major cities, the third man in the race for the presidency found himself, on Sunday, May 14, in the spotlight: the ultra-nationalist Sinan Ogan.

no Recep Tayyip Erdoganno Kemal Kilicdaroglu He failed to reach 50% of the vote in order to avoid a second round on 28 May. Sinan Ogan won with 5.2% of the vote, a potentially decisive outcome in the hotly contested presidential race. This 55-year-old politician dreams of being a potential kingmaker.

“50 colors of nationalism”

A former academic with a master’s degree in financial law, Sinan Ogan obtained a Ph.D. in international relations and political science from the Moscow State Institute of International Relations before entering the world of politics.

A former member of the far-right Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), he was elected to the Turkish parliament in his native district of Igdir in eastern Turkey. Türkiyein 2011. He left the party in 2017 when Devlet Bahceli, leader of the Nationalist Movement Party, supported Erdogan’s constitutional reform project to move towards a more presidential system.

Along with other senior officials of the MHP, Sinan Oğan does not agree to abandon the parliamentary system. Pushed former Interior Minister Meral Aksener to the helm of this bomber, she founded the Salih Party (Second Party, in Turkish). Umit Özdag also defected from joining the Good Party initially and then formed the Victory Party (Zafir), a far-right, anti-immigration party.

For his part, Sinan Ogan has not joined any party since he resigned from the MHP, but in this election he chose to join Ümit Özdağ. Thus they formed the Ultranationalist Ancestors Alliance (ATA). Meral Aksener, joined the National Alliance for Kemal Kilicdarogluknown as the “six table” of the six parties in a group dominated by the CHP.

Read also Kemal Kilicdaroglu, “The Quiet Force” Challenging Recep Tayyip Erdogan

Despite their different alliances, the three former members of the nationalist movement have one thing in common: they rely on the ultra-nationalist base during election time, in a country where nationalist fibers are deeply rooted.

“There are approximately fifty shades of nationalism in Turkey,” says Turkish research analyst Güney Yildiz. “Nationalists are everywhere: they can be secular conservatives and even leftists. This leaves little political room for maneuver for candidates who do not belong to this family.

“unearned” vote

The day after the first round, Sinan Oğan set himself up as a kingmaker, setting his terms for supporting one of the candidates in the second round on 28 May. He privately declared, in an interview with Reuters, that he could support Kemal Kilicdaroglu only if the latter agreed not to make concessions to the Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP), a pro-Kurdish party.

Although the HDP is not part of the “Table of Six” coalition, it supported Kemal Kilicdaroglu’s candidacy.

In the coming days, Sinan Ogan must meet the main candidates who qualify for the second round. The alliance with Erdogan is seen as more visible, as the Turkish president has aligned himself with the far right since 2018. “Our chances of a second round are very high.Justice and Development PartyErdogan’s ruling party.

However, Guney Yildiz warns to be careful not to over-estimate Sinan Ogan’s potential role. He caught the reaction of voters who did not see themselves as supporting one of the two blocs [majeurs]. I’m not sure it’s a condemnation vote for Sinan Ogan.”

With a final score of 49.51% for Erdogan, some analysts also noted that Sinan Ogan’s role in the second round has changed from kingmaker to ruler, as the “sultan” of Turkish politics, who has been in power for 20 years, caresses the wind. .

Read also Türkiye: Recep Tayyip Erdogan is in a position of strength ahead of the second round of the presidential elections

According to Jasper Mortimer, France 24 correspondent in Turkey, Erdogan has all the cards in his hand to negotiate with Sinan Ogan. “Some of Sinan Ogan’s voters will vote for Erdogan,” he said live from Ankara. What we must remember is that Erdogan has clearly won. He lost only 0.5% to reach 50% of the vote. [Sinan Ogan, NDLR] Ask for his support. Erdogan may offer him something, but he does not need it.”

Play the national card

During his campaign, Kemal Kilicdaroglu delivered an opening message. He promised to cut off the crackdown on freedoms and dissent taken during the last decade of Turkish political dominance by Erdogan.

However, the political zeitgeist seemed to favor a “purely Turkish” language. “The fact that Sinan Ogan got 5% of the vote confirms that ultra-nationalism is still alive and well in Turkey,” political risk advisor Anthony Skinner told AFP. Altogether, the country’s nationalists and ultranationalists won 22% of the council’s seats.

Article adapted from Its original version in English Written by Asia Hamza and Barbara Gable.