Why a win without an All Blacks bonus would be better for the Blues

New Zealand’s bonus-free win over Italy on Friday (9pm, Lyon) will provide a little extra security for France’s aim to qualify for the World Cup quarter-finals. Better yet, any exploitation from Italy would qualify the Blues.

After being exempt from this week’s World Cup, the French XV will watch with interest the poster match between Italy and New Zealand on Friday (9pm). The Italian’s exploit (win or draw) will qualify the Blues to the quarter-finals. But this is not the real trend of the bookmakers (1.01 for a black victory, and odds of 20 for an Italian success for example). If Italy advances, they still look several notches below the All Blacks, who are largely favorites and winners of their 15 meetings against the Italians in history. Expectations logically lean towards the New Zealanders’ success.

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The Blues are eliminated if they lose to Italy and the Blacks receive two bonuses

In such a situation, the Blues must be hoping for an unbuckled win for the New Zealanders to provide them with a bit of security in case an unpleasant upset occurs during their last encounter against Italy on October 6. Should New Zealand beat the national team, then another (very likely) victory against Uruguay in their final match, the Barrett brothers’ teammates (Boden, Jordie and Scott, all starting on Friday) would finish first in the standings. The group if Italy creates this feat against the Blues. Even if France gets the defensive bonus, it will finish third behind Italy. In the event of a tie (14 points here), the rules qualify the winner for a direct confrontation.

A three-way tie (14 points) is also possible if the Blacks don’t get the bonus against Italy on Friday (and then get it against Uruguay), and Italy beats France without a defensive bonus but with a defensive bonus for the Blues.

In such a scenario, the first criterion (each team counts one win in direct confrontations) is not taken into account. The teams will then be determined by the difference in field points (score), on which the Blues currently have a good margin (+125, compared to +65 for Italy and +54 for New Zealand). We will then have to take into account the difference between tries scored and tries scored, then the best attack, the most attempts.

If the tie remains, the place will be awarded to the team with the highest World Rugby ranking on 12 October 2015. On that date, New Zealand finished first, France sixth and Italy 13th. The Blues, who lead with three wins, can avoid all these calculations by not losing their last match against Italy. They will be first and qualified if they are drawn to at least one lottery.