Who will do what on the mud?

Obviously, the tennis season is divided into several parts, starting at the beginning of the year through the summers in Australia and New Zealand. Then comes a period that continues in indoor European championships, while other tournaments are already on the ground in South America. All these beautiful people meet at the BNP Paribas Open in Indian Wells, before heading to Miami. Then comes the moment of European mud, which ends with Roland Garros.

Here we are in this great part of the year, very special, because of this deck that is used to play tricks on many players. On the contrary, there are some who do particularly well during this sequence. You may see who I’m talking about…

What do you expect from Swiatek, Garcia, Sabalenka and the others…

On the women’s circuit, world number one Iga Swiatek is clearly expected to add to her already well-equipped slate of tournaments in this period. Last year, before winning Roland Garros for the second time, she had lifted the trophy in Stuttgart and Rome (she didn’t play in Madrid). She will undoubtedly be one of the most dangerous clients for the next eight weeks.

Aryna Sabalenka, like Swiatek, will be talked about during this round. The world number 2 has had good results and will also be one of the players to be defeated this spring. After winning her first major tournament of the year in Melbourne, she was dreaming of going one second. Due to its progression and especially the regularity that you did not always know, this dream may be closer to reality than it generally is. For example, last night I dreamed that I was flying …

Three players are sure to achieve results no matter what, especially thanks to the constant consistency they show: they are the Americans Jessica Pegula and Coco Gauff, as well as the Greek Maria Sakkari. These three are always drawn up, but more often than not the winners are drawn up. To reach a milestone, you have to win major tournaments. Pegula did it in Guadalajara last year, but now we have to confirm it at the Grand Slam.

Question marks among women over Caroline Garcia, Elena Rybakina and Ons Jabeur. First Name is going through a slightly more difficult period. But as she teams up again with Bertrand Perret, the coach who brought her to the Masters, hopefully she’ll have a string-style winning streak like last summer. Carol! Carol!

For Rybakina, the question is not whether she plays tennis, but how she will shine on the clay. Her big serve will be a less effective arrow on the ground and if her flat shots are not accurate, it will be difficult for her unless her style changes.

Finally, the biggest question mark about Ons Jabeur stands out. We know that the Tunisian is very comfortable on clay (the final and the triumph of Roland Garros Juniors in 2010 and 2011), but what about her physical condition? Her return, after a knee injury, was, according to her, “premature” at Indian Wells. Will you be 100%? If so, beware of the guy who lost last year in the first round at Roland-Garros during the Sunday Start.

Novak Djokovic will return with great physical fitness

On the men’s side, of course we will be waiting for the “usual suspects” such as Novak Djokovic, Stefanos Tsitsipas, Carlos Alcaraz and Janik Sinner.

Honestly, I cannot decently include Rafael Nadal in this list, given the question mark over the Spaniard’s health. He has already withdrawn from Monaco, where he was going to play, and is now scheduled to return to the competition for the Barcelona championship. However, this participation must be taken conditionally, because no one (maybe even him) is able to know when and where he will be ready. The only sure thing is that if he appears at Roland-Garros, which remains his absolute priority, then he is competitive. And if he’s a competitor at Roland-Garros, he’s the frontrunner.

Regarding the other four mentioned above, it is clear that they will get away with it for the next two months. They are the ones who will be at the top of the bill, without a doubt (provided, of course, that they don’t get hurt). So, the question is which of the four will be at the top. Therefore, Novak Djokovic is clearly the favourite. He has the experience and, above all, is as fresh as a good pinch that can be enjoyed around 6 p.m. with a view of the sea. The Serb has so far played only three tournaments in 2023 (two of which he won), because it has prevented him from setting foot on American soil, Because there is no vaccination schedule. So yeah, he missed the Masters 1000s, but he’ll be in the shape of his life for the next eight weeks.

As far as Carlos Alcaraz and Janick Sinner are concerned, both of them are expected to participate in the last four tournaments, or even better. They will likely face each other again to our great delight and I wouldn’t be surprised if one of them finishes this round with at least a Masters 1000 title in the bag. Note that for Sinner this will be the first.

But the player who blew everything up from Rotterdam is called Daniil Medvedev. Thus, he tied the Russian national team to victory in Rotterdam, Doha and Dubai, and then the final in Indian Wells and the fourth title in Miami. It’s a “hot potato”. His current form is clearly an advantage, which is all the more important at the start of what is historically the least productive part of a season for the world number one. Combining his career results in Monte Carlo, Madrid, Rome and Roland Garros, Daniel has a record of 13 wins, 15 losses and has never performed better than a semi-final (Monte Carlo in 2019). At Roland Garros, he has never managed to perform better than in the quarterfinals. Despite that, it seems impossible to me not to see him in the last four in Paris. He will not be under any pressure, because everyone expects him to bend over.

Obviously other players will be talked about and we may even be entitled to exceptional stories / surprises, as only sports can achieve this. But when it comes to trends, I don’t think I’m too far off the mark.