The Three Possible Scenarios of a Russian Attack in Donbass

Ukraine has been afraid for several days of a new all-out offensive by Russia in the Donbass region. Thus, three scenarios can be envisaged.

Imminent attack? Since Russia’s recent withdrawal in eastern Ukraine, Kyiv has feared for a week the start of a major offensive in the Donbass region. With the aim of capturing the entirety of this mining basin, two major cities, Donetsk and Lugansk, declared their independence in April 2014, spurred by their pro-Russian sentiments after the annexation of Crimea.

After the failure of the Blitzkrieg, what could this second part of the Russian invasion of Ukraine consist of? How will Vladimir Putin’s army proceed to control this strategic region? BFMTV.com is evaluating all three potential scenarios with our Defense Adviser, General Jerome Belistrandi.

Scenario One: Big Attack

The first envisaged scenario for an attack on Donbass is a “major” attack, General Jerome Belistrandi explains. Russian troops were rushing from three axes, the cities of Kharkiv, Kobyansk and Mariupol, to take control of Dnipro, on the banks of the Dnieper River.

“This would provide the best anti-tank barrier against a Ukrainian counterattack. However, it is a very ambitious plan, the distances are very large and it will require renewed Russian forces, which they do not currently have,” defines our defense advisor.

Scenario Two: Two attacks from Izium and Donetsk

In the second scenario, two offensives could begin from Izyum in the north and from Donetsk in the south, with the idea of ​​encircling Ukrainian forces at the level of the cities of Parvenkov, Slovyansk and Kramatorsk.

“This hypothesis is credible but has a flaw, it exposes the western flank of the Russian forces to Ukrainian counterattacks. Therefore it is necessary to coordinate these two attacks very well in the north and south. This scenario still needs to be observed, because there are significant reinforcements of the Russian forces around the city of Izyum” General Jerome Belistrandi confirms.

Scenario III: Conquer what remains of Donbass

According to the third scenario, the Russian forces will simply try to occupy what remains of the Donbass, in particular around the cities of Kramatorsk and Severodonetsk.

“This is the least ambitious but the most realistic idea, given the state of the Russian forces at the moment. In all three scenarios there is an unknown factor, which is also the state of the Ukrainian forces and their ability to respond,” concluded our defense adviser.