Te Rapa Race Scratchings
TAB Meeting # 4 with the first of 10 races starting at 12:25pm
Doubles: 2-3, 4-5, 6-7, 8-9
Trebles: 1-2-3, 4-5-6, 7-8-9
Quaddies: 2-3-4-5, 6-7-8-9
Pick 6: Starts on race 4 with a $25,000 Guaranteed Pool
Track conditions: Dead 4
Rail: Out 5m
Track: Left hand 1800m
Length of straight: 420m
Todays $50 Betting Strategy
Race 1: #7 SHAKE THAT TUSH $6 Win (paying $8.00 NZ TAB FOB)
Race 3: #6 LUCETTA $10 Win (paying $3.70 NZ TAB FOB)
Race 5: #11 MONKEY SHOULDER $5 E/W (paying $15.00 & $4.00 NZ TAB FOB)
Race 6: $24 Quaddie / 1-4-5-7-9 / 1-3-7-9 / 1-6-8-9 / 3-6-10 / = 10%
Fridays $50 spend returned $11.50 = $38.50 (loss)
Betting Strategy running total spent $4,100 to return $4,168.20 ($68.20 profit)
RACE 1: SHAKE THAT TUSH has improved with racing, she learnt a lot after getting beaten on debut and should have finished a lot closer at Matamata after clearing a pocket late, the extra 100 metres of this races looks ideal, she is a winner at short notice. POWER’S THAT BE has had a tough introduction to racing by lining up against our best youngsters at Group level, she will definitely notice the drop in class here and with her race day experience she looks well placed to get some confidence back, watch closely. PATCH PRINCE was the talk horse on debut but it didn’t match the trainers confidence after warning punters he’d improve with the experience, his effort did suggest he’d be a better horse next time and an improved effort can be expected, follow your money. Of the unraced youngsters MOERAKI appeared to be the more forward, he showed a lot of pace winning his most recent trial, he wanted to loaf at the distance and had to be woken up but once he got his mind back on the job he cruised to the line untested, he has the scope to furnish into a lovely racehorse, from the ace draw he is sure to be well supported in the markets. SHERWOOD FOREST sat just in behind the pace at his latest trial, when he was presented he let down nicely to get up on the line, he will probably improve with racing but is sure to be ready come raceday, hard to beat. Stablemate HARLOW got going late when finishing runner up at her most recent trial, she has improved at each trial, she might be run off her feet by some in this but she will be taking ground off her rivals at the finish, include in all multiples.
RACE 2: DEMONETIZATION returned from his operation a much more focused galloper, he had to be to run down a very smart mare at his last start, he races close to the pace being able to produce a quick sprint when asked, he handles any track and is a proven weight carrier, hard to beat again in the same grade. STARRYBEEL confirmed his promise as one of NZ’s most promising stayers by winning the Dunstan Stayers Championship on New Years Day, he hasn’t been seen since but returning at the mile & back to his favourite way of going he looks to be one of the leading chances, the small field will ensure that he doesn’t get too far off them. BELLA COURT returned to her best form with a confidence building win two starts back in this grade, she then followed that with an unlucky effort behind the top mares at her next start, older mares do tend to race better in the Summer months and this mare is no exception, look for her to continue her good form, each way. HOWBOWDAT was runner up behind the above mare at Ellerslie, he did well to finish where he did after taking hold early in the running, connections might be inclined to make a play for the lead now that he is being tested over the mile, even though he can be a moody customer at times he is more than capable of taking this out on his best behaviour. FARM BOY failed to fire in the Taupo Cup and he has been down on form for some time now but it has also been a long time since he was last in R82 grade, he has been given a freshen up and gets his chance to return to some worthwhile form here, include in all multiples. CAMINO ROCOSO looks to be back to his best and has been racing in good Open grade company, he is a proven weight carrier that has each way claims in this. JUSTAMIZ is furnishing into a lovely stayer, he got back a bit too far at Ellerslie on New Years Day in that Dunstan final field, that was a deep form race with just about everything going on with it since then, he has been taken along quietly and can definitely make his presence felt in this.
RACE 3: LUCETTA has been a touch unlucky since clearing maidens at Ruakaka 4 starts back, she got held up at the wrong time last start at Counties, once clear she hit the line with her usual gusto, connections will be looking for her to make her run earlier and take luck out of the equation, she might be wearing out the punters patience but she does look well placed here. Not much has gone right for THE BOY WONDER this season, he has been getting too far back then being asked to sustain a long sprint giving him no chance of winning especially in some of the good fields he has been in, he will appreciate the drop back in class for this and is desperately looking for a confidence boost, expect a return to some worthwhile form in this. WHEAO has been doing a few things wrong in most of his races to date, testing his trainers patience, he finally put it all together when winning his last run at Matamata and as can often happen he should now go on with it, he will improve further with more racing, include in all multiples. HOIST has been getting better at each start this season, his effort for 3rd at Trentham was full of merit, a big effort was expect on his home track at his next start and he didn’t disappoint finishing 3rd after working hard the whole race, he should be able to settle close to the pace getting his chance to gain a deserved win. For odds consider RUSTY IN MELBOURNE she is stepping up to a middle distance for the first time, she looked back to her best when finishing quickly for 2nd at Tauherenikau, she then followed that with a somewhat unlucky run at Trentham, her trainer wouldn’t be coming here if he didn’t think she was a chance to take home a lion’s share of the stake, each way. MISS RIPPY has improved her form since the blinkers have been applied, she hasn’t had much luck at her 2 most recent starts, with her overall form better than it looks on paper, the last time she raced on this track she made ground late for 4th and she does seem to prefer left handed tracks, expect a form reversal.
RACE 4: SECRET ALLURE proved her worth with a strong win in the Desert Gold Stakes at Trentham, she was also a good 2nd at Ellerslie the start prior over today’s middle distance, she has cemented herself as one of our leading chances in the upcoming NZ Oaks and looks very well placed to go back to back here. QUEEN OF DIAMONDS tried so hard for 3rd on that Ellerslie Boxing Day heavy track, she then followed that with a fast finishing 4th in the Karaka millions, she has come a long way in a short time but with that fantastic breeding connections are eager to try her over a middle distance and on her recent performances it is a distance that she will excel at, hard to beat. THE REAL BEEL put in a massive performance last start, she went for home a long way from home only to be collared late, a slow start that day didn’t help, neither did the one at her start prior, she has always shown some ability with that last effort she looks to have gone to the next level and with some of the top fillies missing she gets her chance to get some more black type, include in all multiples. IMELDA MARY wasn’t helped last start by being dropped back to the mile, she was closing gamely at the end of the race, finishing a close up 8th, her wins over the middle distance at her immediate races prior says she is more than capable of getting back into the winners circle here. SAVY YONG BLONK was stepped up in quality at her last start after putting back to back grade wins together prior to that, her effort for 7th at Trentham was full of merit, she had to make her run wider whereas the winner came through the field, though separated by six placings her effort was just as good as the winner and with the step up to a middle distance looking ideal then she must be in with a great chance of reversing her recent fortunes, watch closely. SENTIMENTAL MISS was also making up good ground in the Eulogy actually finishing ahead of the above mare but she did have an uninterrupted run in her favour, she has made ground at each and every start suggesting that she has been crying out for a middle distance, this is a good test form her with everyone knowing a lot more after the race with an eye towards the Oaks. For longer odds consider NERVE NOT VERVE was beaten by the wide draw last start but still managed to flash home form 2nd, this was after making a solid debut where she again made up plenty of ground late, she is only a maiden but will relish the step up in distance and connections will be desperate for her to go close to winning so they can push on with their Oaks ambitions without the pressure of chasing a run, she cannot be left out of any combinations.
RACE 5: THE CHOSEN ONE like many in here is chasing a Derby start, since returning from a mid season let up he has needed both his runs to bring him close to peak fitness, he is in the leading stable so the step up from 1400 metres to 2000 metres shouldn’t be an issue, he is also bred to get over ground this field is missing a couple of the best 3 year olds and he gets a great chance to return to his winning ways. CROWN PROSECUTOR found the six weeks between runs too much when he faded to 8th at Trentham last time out, he also had the excuse of a tough run, all his starts leading up to that had him pegged as a galloper that would thrive over a middle distance, this winner of the Group 3 Wellington stakes shouldn’t be discounted when it comes to picking the winner of this race. LINCOLN FALLS has had a big reputation even prior to making his debut, he hasn’t let connections down yet, he was unsuited by the heavy track at Ellerslie on Boxing Day then followed that with a brave 5th at Trentham when he was making ground wide out, it wasn’t the place to be that day which makes his effort look even better when considering formlines, astute trainer has taken her time with this fellow and he will be spot on for this. LANGKAWI didn’t quite have things go his way when beaten in the Karaka Millions for 3 year olds over the mile, he is likely to push forward and having his first attempt at a middle distance he might try to lead all the way, if he can snare a cheap sectional somewhere in the running he will take all sorts of running down, each way. ARROGANT probably should have finished closer in that deep field last start when racing at Trentham, he did have a good run in transit and did have every right to be running on but it did show that he is up to this class, he will definitely be suited by the extra distance, with Derby winning trainers looking to have him spot for this to cement his place in the upcoming Derby field, each way in a very interesting field. MONKEY SHOULDER has been touted as a Derby prospect since his first start, to say he has been disappointing is an understatement, although beaten he has yet to really put in a bad run, he had no winning chance from back in the field off a slow pace last start but was doing his best work at the finish, his astute trainer still has the belief and maybe the step up in distance will unlock his true ability, one more chance for us.
RACE 6: RONDINELLA gained a confidence boosting win over a small field at Tauranga last start, this made up for two very unlucky runs prior over the mile, she was a good winner on this track fresh up and now that she is up to the middle distance she can be expected to hold her form, she looks very well placed to back to back. CHA SIU BAO returned to his best form when winning at Matamata two starts back, it was his first show of form since winning as a 3 year old, more importantly it coincided with another try at the middle distances, he backed that up with a most unlucky 3rd at Counties after clearing a pocket late, this field looks well within his reach and a win would come as no surprise. SACRED DAY has another that has been devoid of racing luck at his most recent starts, he was well out of his grade on Boxing Day at Ellerslie and produced a big finish to rush home for 3rd with the horses finishing ahead of him going on with it since then, he hasn’t been seen since but his astute trainers would have kept him right up to the mark, watch closely. VERRY FLASH has needed all his racing this season, he over raced in front last start in his first attempt over a middle distance, he would have improved a lot with that under his belt and is much better when ridden off the pace, his chance soar if there is any amount of rain around, he cannot be left out of combinations. For wider combinations consider PONT ALMA has been a touch inconsistent but her winning efforts have been those of a very promising type, she looked to be running into it last start but was angled back to the inside to obtain clear racing room, unfortunately that wasn’t the place to be as the winners were all wider on the track, she should be allowed another chance and this field is not beyond her ability, include in all combinations. MENTAL TELEPATHY is back from contesting the Wellington Cup, just as in the NZ Cup he just didn’t get the two miles, maybe next season, he does looked well placed back to R82 company with connections making the most of the light nominations here, he is only 5KG’s above the minimum and he won’t lack for fitness, goes close.RONDINELLA wining her last start at Tauranga when the $2.00 favourite
RACE 7: DANZDANZDANCE has stamped herself as the new glamour horse on the NZ racing scene, she has made up for all her past unlucky runs by being a dominant winner in her last two races, both at Group 1 level, she hasn’t raced since Boxing Day but astute trainers wouldn’t have missed a beat, a good track will be no issue and only bad luck will beat her. CHARLES ROAD ran a beauty first up since running a brave 7th in the Melbourne Cup, he will be suited by the extra 400 metres here and is a winner 2nd up in the past, he has the Auckland Cup as his main aim but will still have enough dash to go close to winning in this. WYNDSPELLE has been up all season but being a stallion has thrived, he is racing at his best now, with his last two efforts producing strong finishes for a brace of 2nd placings, these efforts suggest he is ready to be tried over a middle distance again, he won his only race over the 2000 metres on this track as a 3 year old and with the right run goes close again. SAINT EMILION was a good winner three starts back at WFA in the Spring he has raced twice since then and definitely needed the blow out at New Plymouth last start, that would have cleaned him up nicely for this and on the quick back up he is likely to take up the running and prove very hard to run down, watch closely. BELLE DU NORD showed she was back to her best when downing a quality field of mares three starts back on this track, her two runs since then have been solid without her getting all the luck in the running, back to this track and stepping up to a middle distance should see her getting back to her best, include in all multiples. For bolters odds consider ELUSIVE TREASURE was back to his best last start when easily running past a small but tidy field on this track back in December, he has been kept on ice since then but has shown up at this level in the past, he is at his best when the pace is on all the way and is likely to get that here, ridden patiently he is more than capable of making his presence felt in this. DANZDANZDANCE racing away to an easily win at Ellerslie last start in the Group 1 Cambriddge Zabeel Classic
RACE 8: MELODY BELLE is such a class mare that you have to forgive her the one bad run, connections weren’t sure whether to go back or forward, settling on being trapped wide meaning that she would have had to break 66 seconds to have won from where she was! She wasn’t knocked around late in the race to make sure they have a horse left for this assignment, she can bounce back no problems with the 1400 metres now being ideal. VOLPE VELOCE made amends for her unlucky Railway effort by gaining a deserved win last start over the 1400 metres, she has been among our best sprinters for some time now and probably finds the 1200 metres to sharp these days, now that she has gained her confidence back she can be expected to hold that winning form, very hard to beat. ANDROSSAN has returned from Australia to immediately stamp himself as one of our better sprinters, this is his toughest test to date by far but put away a very handy Concorde field at his last start, his fitness is only going to improve further from that effort and we’ll know a lot more after this run. HIFLYER can be a quick improver after a somewhat unlucky run in the Telegraph, more was expected from him that day but after deciding to go back and ride for luck he was unable to find clear air leaving him with no chance from back in the field, he will appreciate the step up in distance, watch for a form reversal. BOSTONIAN found out quickly the rigors of racing at elite level, he tried his heart out last start finishing ahead of some more illustrious runners, some of his best form coming through the grades was at this distance and all he needs is for a soft track to see his winning chances soar, either way he shouldn’t be left out of any combinations. WATCH THIS SPACE and STRATOCASTER are both capable of causing an upset on their respective days, they are a notch below the top line gallopers but with the right run both can easily play a part in the finish. VELOPE VELOCE winning her last start the Group 2 Westbury Classic at Ellerslie beating SLEEPING BEAUTY ridden by James McDonald
RACE 9: MARISSA had a good Ellerslie Campaign culminating in a strong win on New Years Day over the mile, she drew wide that day and made a play for the front before the half mile, the ride proved to be a stroke of genius as she kept on running, holding out a handy field, she took a well earned break and returns at 1400 metres in the same grade full of confidence, there is no reason she can’t win again. DAMA ZORRO returned from a slight muscle soreness issue to post back to back 2nd placings behind a couple of very smart types, 3rd up should see her at peak fitness and she wouldn’t have to improve much to figure in the finish in this. GRAND MAYSON is a CD visitor racing in good form, a slow getaway probably cost it the win when racing at Otaki last time out, he seems to be getting more genuine with age and should now be ready to be tested at the 1400 metres, each way. TIGHTLIGN has been lightly tried due to having had some setbacks along the way, he reminded us again of his promise when cruising to victory at Tauranga last start, his fitness would have only improved from that run and this rise in grade will hold no fears, his stable is flying at the moment, watch closely. GIANT GEM is an underrated type who scored an impressive win when last on this track two starts back, he then went to Ellerslie and posted a 6th after being trapped off the track for most of the race, he has been freshened up with a bold race to be expected, each way. RUBIRA was a Stakes winner as a 2 year old, she was thought enough off by connections to embark on a Spring VRC Oaks campaign, she was forced to return after running 5th in the Group 3 Ethereal Stakes which was her best run over there, given a spell and returning to run 3rd at a recent trial where she looked quite forward in condition suggesting she will be spot on for this assignment, her winning chances should not be overlooked. MARISSA winning her last start at Ellerslie for trainer Stephen Ralph