TAB Meeting #6 with the first of 10 races starting at 12:12pm
DBL: 1-2, 3-4, 5-6, 7-8, 9-10
TRB: 1-2-3, 4-5-6, 8-9-10
QAD: 2-3-4-5, 7-8-9-10
Track conditions: Dead 4
Track: Right hand 1900m
Length of straight: 520m
Todays $50 Betting Strategy
Race 3: #4 CUSTOM CRUSIER $11 E/W (paying $18.00 & $4.20 NZ TAB FOB)
Race 5: #1 BRUEGEL $5 E/W (paying $6.00 & $2.20 NZ TAB FOB)
Race 7: $18 Quaddie / 2-7-8-11-13 / 1-6-9 / 2-6-16 / 1-13-14-16 / = 10%
Wednesdays $50 spend returned $0.00 = $50.00 (loss)
Betting Strategy running total spent $4,850 to return $4,423.90 ($426.10 loss)
The early movers from opening to 9:30AM raceday
Race 2: Dare To Compare $7.50 – $6.00 – $5.50
Race 3: Holy Mongolemperor $6.50 – $4.00 – $3.30 – $3.40
Race 4: Hetty $4.50 – $3.10 – $3.00
Race 5: The Chaser $6.50 – $4.50 – $4.40
Race 6: O’Hara $4.50 – $4.40 – $4.20
Race 7: Leonardo $11.00 – $9.00 – $8.50 – $8.00
Race 10:Inigo Montoya $6.00 – $5.50 – $5.00
Race 1: Best bet VALMUR enjoyed the step up to a middle distance for the first time last start where she was spotted making up plenty of ground late along the fence, she is another that gets back so will need a touch of luck but is going well enough to be a threat in a very even affair. OUR BEESKEES had to get back from his wide draw last start, he then made up many lengths to finish 4th, he has been thereabouts all season and probably should have won a race by now, he has a better draw to work with today and won’t get as far back this time, having Opie Bosson in the saddle is also a plus, each way. WINKLEBELLE bobbed up at big odds last start in her first go over ground, she had obviously needed her first two runs to build fitness and get used to racing in big fields, her form line comes out of a similar race, where she is facing many of her rivals again, she doesn’t have to improve much to go one better.
Race 2: Best bet NEWMARKET stepped up to the mile and immediately broke through for a deserved maiden win last start, her future is going to be at a middle distance or even longer with the 2100 metres here being the perfect stepping stone, she should settle handy from her good draw and looks to be the leading chance in this, go again. PHILOSOPHICAL is in foal, with this race probably being her last, her connections would love to get a middle distance win alongside her name before she retires, she was most unlucky last start at Matamata when running out of room late, she has form right handed and can make her presence felt in this, watch for her late. STAR KAREN still holds an Oaks nomination and was a strong winner three starts back in her first attempt at a middle distance, she over raced badly at her next start at Group 2 level but was a lot more settled when making ground late at Ellerslie last time out, she can be expected to be further improved out of that race and she would want to be winning this if connections are serious about an Oaks start .DARE TO COMPARE had no luck when trapped wide in a strong fillies contest last start, whether she could have featured in the finish or not is up for debate but she was only beaten five lengths, her efforts prior were good enough for her to be competitive at this level and she will appreciate the 3KG claim, include in all multiples.
Race 3: Best bet FOLK DRESS comes out on top due to her having race day experience, she finished 4th on debut against some very handy youngsters and there has been a lot of good form come out of that race, she has a lot of natural speed which should help her negate the wide draw, she is in the leading stable that gets their gallopers to improve quickly with each start, she is one of many chances in this. ENJOY THE SHOW is the choice of Matt Cameron, he rode a few of his rivals in varying trials so it is wise to follow his lead, this colt showed a lot of pace when finishing 2nd at his latest trial, he would have improved since then and comes up with the coveted ace draw, expect him to be fighting out the finish. WELL CHOSEN and HOLY MONGOLEMPEROR were both good trial winners that should improve with race day experience, they look to be sensible types with bright futures. CUSTOM CRUSIER is a horse to keep an eye on, he was unplaced at his latest trial but it was only over 800 metres and once he got into the clear he ran home attractively to finish 4th, he is a well put together individual that will appreciate the extra distance here, he should be at nice each way value.
Race 4: Best bet MASTER PARK showed that he has matured into a nice galloper since his spell when showing good pace to win his latest trial, he crossed from a wide draw and nothing got close to him, easing down at the finish, if he can bring that sort of performance to race day then he will be very hard to beat. COPPER FOX has been given plenty of time by his astute trainers, he had a nice run in transit when winning his last of two trials, his future will probably be over more ground but he does look to be a promising type hat should have enough dash to a leading chance here, follow any positive market leads. HETTY went a very nice race on debut in the Spring, finishing 2nd behind a promising type that has gone on with it since, she was then put aside to mature over Summer, she was seen running on nicely at a recent trial and with the 3KG claim should be hard to hold out, watch closely. For longer odds in another very even field consider MATTER OF FACT she has had four trials and looks to be a very sensible type, she was spotted making up many lengths in her latest trial, really attacking the line late, she should appreciate the extra distance here, from her good draw she is one to follow, include in all multiples.
Race 5: Best bet BRUGEL he is a newcomer to the N Tiley stable who has a lot of success with older horses looking for a change in environment, as a five race winner he is well placed in this and he hasn’t been too far away in recent racing, each way value. Forget THE CHASER went around last start at Te Rapa, he was caught off the track the whole way and only battled down the straight, his efforts prior were handy enough with his form building nicely, he drops a rating band here and with Opie Bosson taking over the reins should be much more competitive from his good draw. MAGIC CONDOR showed ability as a 2 year old then resumed with a win early in the season, she was then tested in better company but wasn’t quite ready, spelled again she returned with a solid effort for 4th at Avondale, the blinkers being added here should sharpen her up and the extra 200 metres looks ideal, she is a winner at short notice. ROBUSTO showed enough last season with a win and a placing from four starts to suggest she is going to make it in time, she has had two trials to prepare for her return here and would only need a wet track to be right in the thick of things at the finish, even so she should still be running on strongly no matter what the track conditions, include in all multiples.
Race 6: Best bet MERCY HILL she had no luck on this track last start when running out of room late, she encountered the same problem the start prior, she will always need some luck as she is best ridden with cover and presented as late as possible to unleash her potent sprint, the small field will help her chances, she is well placed at the weights, hard to beat. FABULOUS FLIGHT took a while to sort himself out and mature, he has really come to it recently with a tidy win last start beating a handy field in the process, he benefits further with the 3KG claim which takes him below the minimum, fit and capable of going back to back. O’HARA put two wins together in the Spring, on both occasions he led for the whole journey, he was then tried at a middle distance but failed to stay after doing a bit of work outside the leader, given a freshen up since then he returns to the mile with the benefit of a quiet trial under his belt, the stable is running hot and he is a definite winning chance. For odds consider WOODLOVETO he is a stayer resuming that managed to win two in a row over ground last season, he was then put aside for a good spell and comes into this without any public trials, now that he is a 5 year old you’d expect him to have furnished even more with the break and quality stayers like him can throw in a beauty fresh up, follow any positive market leads.
Race 7: A maiden 1400 starts the second quaddie, best bet RATHVILLY he might be a touch on the weak side but is improving with racing, he loomed large on the turn last start before peaking on his effort, he gets another good draw and has the services of Opie Bosson riding, he doesn’t meet much here and doesn’t have to improve much to break through. CHOULEE has gone two nice races since resuming both over the 1200 metres, she made up a fair amount of ground late last start suggesting that she is now ready for the step up in distance for this, she gets a senior jockey (Jason Waddell) on this time which should negate the wide draw, each way. ANYTHING BUT backed up his trial win with a fast finishing 4th on debut, he has a lot more upside than most in this and should appreciate the extra distance, watch for him late. NONCHALANT is a 4 year old on debut, he looked an improved galloper at his most recent trial, his first this season, he settled back and made up many lengths under his own steam, he has been given plenty of time to get over that effort and will be spot on come race day, he is an impressive looking type with plenty of scope, he should make the grade, include in all multiples. TRIP TO FREEDOM is another on debut, she has had four trials and has improved in each of them, her future will be over more ground but she will still be sharp enough to be competitive in this, she was making up many lengths to finish just in behind them at her most recent trial, a win would be no surprise, she is one to follow later on.RATHVILLY finishing 3rd two starts back at Tauranga when sent out as the $3.30 favourite
Race 8: Best bet RUSAVY has been knocking on the door, he was flying home late last start at Te Aroha but ran into a brick wall having to be eased right down, he probably should have won, his start prior he was also unlucky in a very strong New Plymouth field, he gets a good draw here and deserves a winning turn. THOMAS AQUINAS has held the mantle of best maiden in the Country for a bit too long now, he really should have won a race by now, connections abandoned their Derby dreams after he failed at Listed level back in December, he has been given a freshen up and looked in good condition at a recent trial, watch closely. HONFLEUR got bombed late by a handy type last start after looking the winner at the distance, she does seem to be improving with racing and can make her presence felt in this, each way. For odds consider STRIKINGAPOSE who went to Te Teko for her debut where she finished well back, she would have learnt a lot from that experience, that effort was really only a sprint home after the winner got away with some very cheap sectionals during the running, she improved very quickly at her next start when finishing an unlucky 3rd after being shut out of a gap down the straight, she should make the most of her ace draw and should be thereabouts at the finish.RUSAVY finishing a close-up 3rd last start at Te Aroha for the Chris Wood stable. Stipe Comment: Crowded shortly after the start having to be steadied. Held up until near the 100 metres.
Race 9: Best bet DEELS DONE made an encouraging debut when running on strongly for 2nd, that effort had next up winner written all over it, the step up to the mile is ideal and he should be hard to hold out with natural improvement. WESTERN GIRL was a touch disappointing two starts back when only plugging home, the rider thought the hard track might have been an issue, then you look at who won the race and the run doesn’t seem as bad as all that, she then had a small freshen up before finishing on nicely for 3rd last time out at Avondale, everything seems to be back on track for this filly now, the mile will suit, watch closely. GO GO GOAL is a big staying type that had limited success in his first campaign with his best result being runner up at only his 2nd start, he was still a bit weak and was put away for a good spell over Summer, he has the benefit of having a trial leading into this, where he was seen putting in big strides late, if the pace is on here he can get over the top of his opposition, he is one to follow. CAUGHT THE EYE has taken a bit of time to come to it, his only placings have come at his last two starts where he has led up only to be run down late, he might have to work a bit harder from his wide draw but should also be stronger with recent racing under his belt, include in all multiples. SCIACCA has more upside than some in this, he has only had the two race day starts and has improved at each start, he stuck to his guns at Te Aroha last start after racing outside the leader for most of the way, he wouldn’t have to improve much to feature strongly again. For longer odds consider HENLEY ROAD she has yet to transfer her good trial form to race day, maybe she is just a slow maturing type as some from her sire can be, she has been a lot better this season and should appreciate the step up to a mile here, this is not the strongest maiden field that she’ll ever meet, each way.DEELS DONE #8 finishing 2nd last start on debut at Matamata for trainer Stephen Marsh. Stipe Comment: Briefly steadied approaching the 300 metres when becoming awkwardly placed on heels.
Race 10: Best bet SAVASTEP a winning turn can’t be too far away for this filly, she was a brave 2nd behind a smart type at Te Teko two starts back, then followed that up with a 4th at Te Aroha where arguably she should have finished much closer had she not been buffeted in the straight, she gets the blinkers added here and looks very hard to beat. FLOMILINE is racing better than her formline suggests, she got badly checked two starts back and was then trapped wide throughout last start, you have to go back to her debut effort to catch a glimpse of her ability, she is due a change of luck, she is a winner at short notice. CRESCENT backed up her good trail effort with a bold run for 4th on debut, she went even better next up at Te Aroha closing quickly for 2nd, the step up to a mile is ideal and from her good draw she will settle close to the pace, capable of going one better here. INIGOMONTOYA raced well at Taupo fresh up when finishing 5th, he got closer at Avondale when 2nd after beginning slowly, he has been taken along quietly since and 3rd up should be at peak fitness for this, hard to go past when considering multiple bet types. KRAKADEEL is on debut at the mile after an extensive trial back ground, he has had the five trials, with three coming this season, he is well educated and at his latest trial was kept to even work to the line, whatever he does here he will improve on but his winning chances shouldn’t totally be discounted. MAGNIFY made a solid debut on this track finishing 9th but should have finished closer, as a result he was heavily supported next up at Te Aroha, he over raced in front and faded out, given time to get over that he was much better last start when making up plenty of ground late for 7th, his astute trainer (Nigel Tiley) adds the blinkers for this assignment, watch for him late.SAVASTEP finishing 2nd at Te Teko two starts back to the $2.50 favourite NEWMARKET