Ellerslie Race Scratchings
TAB Meeting #2 with the first of 9 races starting at 12:20pm
Doubles: 2-3, 4-5, 6-7, 8-9
Trebles: 1-2-3, 4-5-6, 7-8-9
Quaddies: 2-3-4-5, 6-7-8-9
Track conditions: Good 3
Rail: Out 9.5m
Track: Right hand 1876m
Length of straight: 382m
Todays $50 Betting Strategy
RACE 6: $27 Quaddie / 3-4-10-12-13 / 1-3-5 / 2-3-9-13-14-15 / 1-2-8 / =10%
RACE 6: $3 Double 10 / 5
RACE 8: #15 ALESUND $10 Win (paying $16.00 NZ TAB FOB)
RACE 9: $5 Quinella 8 / 1-2 (Cost $10)
Thursday meeting $50 spend returned $19.80 = $30.20 loss
Betting Strategy running total spent $6,050 to return $4,771.80 = $1,278.20 loss
RACE 1: Final Field Win Option #743 & Final Field Place Option #752. Best bet VEE CECE went a big run at Taranaki in the Oaks prelude then back that up with a strong finish in the Lowland at Hastings, last time out she was again brave when 6th in a strong R65 field on this track, she looks past the post here. THOUSAND STARS stepped up to a middle distance for the first time last start and immediately delivered, it surprised nearly everybody but the way she won suggested that the extra 200 metres here will suit her even more, chance again. SWEET TREAT loved the heavy conditions last start and ran on gamely for 4th, she went some strong races on the East Coast on better tracks so is in really good touch at the moment, distance suits, hard to beat. For odds consider ARITE GURU he was charging home late last start at Tauranga, he races well here and would only need some rain to make his presence felt in this.
RACE 2: Final Field Win Option #742 & Final Field Place Option #756. Best bet PALAMEDES resumed at Tauranga after a Summer spell, a big run was expected after she had won a trial, unfortunately for connections she had no luck in the straight, eventually settling for 3rd, she will be suited by the extra 200 metres and does look hard to beat. RUSAVY has not had any luck at his last three runs, he probably should have won at Te Aroha two starts back, he is due a change of luck, blinkers go on for this and he gets a handy draw today, with an inform 3KG claimer taking the ride he is due a winning turn. DALMAR resuming after a good Summer spell, he has had a trial to prepare for this assignment and the 4KG claim looks like being helpful, watch for him late. WILD LIKE has got better with each race day start, he wasn’t beaten far when 2nd at Rotorua last time out and looks to have a preference for wet tracks, good draw, hard to beat. GO GO GOAL shouldn’t be overlooked, he battled on strongly at Te Aroha last start, 3rd up here should see him close to peak fitness, include in all multiples.
RACE 3: Final Field Win Option #744 & Final Field Place Option #751. Best bet MONACO after taking a few runs to clear maidens he has gone from strength to strength this year, he handled the step up to R72 grade last start and gets some weight relief for his first attempt at this level, his stable hold him in high regard, another win would come as no surprise. GRIFFIN is similar to the above galloper, he has won three of four starts since resuming from a spell and though they have been away from the main tracks they have all been tough performances, he wasn’t far away from the best 3 year olds of his year so he will have no troubles measuring up to these. MIDNIGHT RUNNER just came to the end of his run late when fresh up on this track three weeks ago, he will strip much fitter this time and is capable of winning this in a very good field. DAMA ZORRO looked like he had won last start at Tauranga but missed by a nose, she has been in wonderful form recently and is well placed at the weights, can go one better. ITS DESTINYS CHILD was 3rd in the same race as the above mare, the penny has dropped recently with this mare and ridden with a cold shot she is able to unleash a very quick sprint, goes close.
RACE 4: Final Field Win Option #745 & Final Field Place Option #754. Best bet RAINBOW DASH she is a very speedy filly that has led easily at her last two runs, both at Group level, even though she faded last start she will find this class drop to her liking. From the draw she will be very hard to run down. THE GREEN DRAGON franked his nice trial win by finishing 3rd on debut at Pukekohe, last time out he was even better when 2nd at Matamata, this is well within his range as he has scope to go further, each way. MIGHT is on debut and won his latest trial by sitting outside the leader for the entire journey before drawing away at the distance, he can overcome the wide draw and should be thereabouts at the business end of the race. TEARS OF JUPITER looks to be the pick of the Williams trio, she had no luck on debut and finished well back, she was heavily supported that day off the back of two impressive trial wins and should be allowed a chance to make amends, watch closely.
RACE 5: Final Field Win Option #748 & Final Field Place Option #758. An Open sprint starts the quaddie, best bet MEDIA SENSATION she is the winner of this season’s 1000 Guineas, she then started on that Heavy track at Ellerslie on Boxing day and didn’t go a yard, again she had no luck last time when chasing the Karaka Millions, freshened up, back to a sprint she looks very hard to hold out. RIKKI TIKKI TAVI has been knocking on the door at her last five runs, she rushed home for 2nd last start on a heavy track, that race was at R82 level, she drops 4KGs now that she is back up to Open class and must get a win soon. TE TORO PEARL went for a good spell after winning four of her five starts, she showed she hasn’t missed a beat and even looked bigger when winning a recent trial in preparation for this assignment, she has untapped ability, can win. STRATOCASTER has been beaten in richer company at his last two starts, he has been racing so well this season and back to this grade he can bounce straight back to the winners circle.
RACE 6: Final Field Win Option #749 & Final Field Place Option #753. Best bet WALKIN’ BY it is tough to put this mare on top as she doesn’t win many but being back to 1200 metres could be the key to getting her over the line, she looked a bit flat at the 1300 last start when up in grade, back to a straight R65 she is much better placed, with a patient ride she can finish all over the top of her opposition here. NULLI SECUNDUS pulled out a beauty fresh up when rushing home for 2nd, she appreciated the fire out of the track that day and would need a similar or worse track today to be a winning chance, but whatever the conditions she should still be included as she has come back a much more stronger mare this time in, she is one to follow later on. MARKLE has a lovely draw to work with, from there she should be able to dictate the pace but can also take a sit if there is pressure out wide, with most of the other favoured runners being drawn wide she gets her chance early to find a winning position, watch closely. THE DOM needed his fresh up run, he showed speed but just knocked up late, from the draw he can again lead if he chooses and could prove to be hard to run down, include in all multiples. BREEZON has been so consistent all season, he still doesn’t get any weight relief but must still be respected, he will look the winner at some stage down the home straight.WALKIN’ BY finishing 4th last start at Tauranga for trainer Tony Pike
RACE 7: Final Field Win Option #750 & Final Field Place Option #755. Best bet THE BUZZ has gone to a new level by winning his last two starts, his win at Pukekohe was a tough effort but it was his last win that made everybody take notice, he travelled up nicely and then put away a couple of very handy types in the process of winning, he gets another kilo for his efforts but is a big bold type so the weight shouldn’t be a problem, can win again. JIP JIP ROCK indicated fresh up that she has come back well after her Summer break, she has a much superior draw to work with here and the step up to a mile looks ideal, she is a winner at short notice. IGNORED didn’t get all favours when fresh up on this track, after getting back early she made steady ground to finish just in behind the winners, she steps immediately to the mile which is a positive sign that she has done well in the interim, the 3KG claim is a bonus, hard to beat. EVANA RAHMA went to Otaki for a soft kill and did so in style coming from well back to boom home down the outside of the track, she shows a lot of promise and the small field here will suit her, her winning chances cannot be discounted. THE BUZZ looking to make it a hat-trick after a neck win at Te Aroha
Race 8: Final Field Win Option #747 & Final Field Place Option #757. Best bet KING’S CROSS was a beaten $2 favourite in a small field at Tauranga last start, he tried hard to the line but just came up short, he is an honest type that drops a rating band for this assignment, he races well on this track and after the 3KG claim can be very competitive in this. TIGHTLIGN bounced back to winning form at Tauranga last start, she got back then finished quickly to score comprehensively, she does rise a kilo for her win but does stay in the same grade, can win again. VICHY was again honest when finishing 5th last start where she was only beaten less than a length in a blanket finish, from her handy draw she should get a soft trip and looks to be one of the leading chances, each way. OWEN PATRICK resumed this season with a brace of impressive wins, he hasn’t quite had all the luck in three starts since then and didn’t really enjoy those heavy track conditions last time out, he gets a bit of weight relief here after the 3KG claim, he also gets the blinkers added in an effort to sharpen him up, expect a form reversal here. SACRED DELIGHT has excuses when fresh up at Matamata, she has the benefit of having had a quiet trial since then and steps up to a more suitable trip here, from the handy draw she will get a to suit and her chances soar if there is any rain around, include in all multiples. ALESUND is better than her last run indicates where she was trapped off the track the whole way but still kept fighting right to the line, that was also her first run in over two months so she should be a lot fitter this time up, with the blinkers added she is another galloper to consider in a wide open field.KING’S CROSS finishing 2nd last start at Tauranga when the $2.00 favourite
RACE 9: Final Field Win Option #746 & Final Field Place Option #759. Best bet COPPER FOX made amends for his defeat on debut in a strong maiden field by winning oh so impressively at his next run, he is held in high regard by his astute stable and has been given plenty of time to mature, he should continue his rise through the classes here. REEVEDERCI resumed from his Summer spell at Listed 3 year old level and should have finished closer than 7th he has always shown above average ability, a bold effort can be expect, he is one to follow through the rest of the season especially over more ground. ANICETA is back from a short let up she has had a trial to prepare for this assignment and is just wanting a slow to dead surface to show her best, she has gone some big races in the past and will be primed for a big run in what may well be Karen Zimmerman’s last runner to the races before she takes up a new position in another stable. STELLA NOIRE was heavily supported when resuming where she looked big in condition and needed the run, not much has gone right for her this season but she should strip a lot fitter here, she has any amount of ability, a win here would be no surprise. WILLIAM TELL continues to race well, he found the heavy track against him last start but still battled strongly for 6th, he also got checked on more than one occasion which also counted against him, back to a better surface here should see him return to his consistent best, include in al multiples. For longer odds consider TAKEITLIKEAMAN who is resuming from a short let up, he was feeling the hard tracks at his last two outings and will appreciate the softer surface here, he might need more ground but is still capable of sprinting well fresh, watch for him.COPPER FOX easily winning his last start at Te Aroha when the $2.20 favorite